As the dust settles on the LA expo, I’m thinking back to many of the discussions I had about the kids and tween virtual worlds space. The crux of these discussions, as they usually tend to, boiled down to:
a. How big is the space?
b. How big is it going to get?
c. Where are the growth areas?
.
a. How big is the space?
It’s certainly not small at present. Take the top five worlds in the KT space on a registered account basis and you arrive at a figure close to 200m.
Filter out from this duplicate accounts (a single person with multiple accounts in the same world), aged accounts (people no longer logging in) and cross-world accounts (people with accounts in more than one world) and you probably get a unique user base of 35m kids aged seven to twelve. This is equivalent to the entire population of California or for us Europeans, the whole of Poland.
.
b. How big is it going to get?
If the current size on a unique basis is in the region of 35m kids, I’d see it doubling to 70m by the end of 2009 and comfortably growing to 150m by 2010. (Insert simple and pretty graph here >>>>).
.
These are quick and dirty estimates. The need for greater transparency on unique accounts and standardisation on industry metrics is for another discussion.
c. Where are the growth areas?
This is the area I want to roll up the sleeves on.
Let’s start with companies leveraging real world IP and brand power into the virtual space. Companies like Barbie Girls, Disney, LEGO and numerous TV-based properties are going to do VERY well. Why? Because they already have millions of potential ‘virtual world residents’ – kids who have grown up in a real world wrapped by these brands – they understand them and most importantly they know them. In fact, more than likely they see them every day as toys on their shelves or programmes on their TV.
.
And that’s fine. In fact, that’s good, good for the industry. We’re not in charge of this industry, the kids are. These are the individuals who’ll be driving the virtual worlds industry into the middle of the 21st century.
.
But let’s switch over to the kids and tween virtual worlds being created without a real-world brand to lean on. There’s going to be winners and losers in this space and I think the fundamental factor that will influence their success (or failure) will be Relevance.
.
By this I mean relevance to real world play andpast-timeactivities that kids aged seven to 13 (for example) engage with. And play is the key word here. Kids like to play, we all like the play. And from an early age we learn what and how we like to play. On a basic level it’s a girls vs boys thing but over and above that, play then becomes a resonating activity that drives how we develop as individuals – we figure out what we like and don’t like to spend our precious spare time doing.
.
When you take a look at some of the popular virtual worlds for kids and tweens already in existence, they’ve done well by creating casual game led destinations but these are not necessarily tied-back to real world activities. You could argue why haven’t they done even better? Perhaps because those kids who decided not to hang around online are instead still engaging in the real world play – the draw wasn’t big enough for them.
.
And this does pose a problem for virtual worlds in this space focusing on generic casual gaming, questing and fantasy-led environments. They’ll appeal to a subset of the market but I don’t think they’ll crack the wider market. You also have a link to this the challenge they face not only providing their platform but also growing their brand. This is the major advantage real world companies have – they already have a brand.
.
So, linking real world activity to virtual spaces could be set for massive growth. Stardoll is already an example of this. It’s an extremely simple proposition – simple and effective. Paperdolls are generations old as a past-time for girls – Stardoll is simply the digital version of this. Neopets is another example.
.
And there’s other examples of ‘old play going digital’ hitting the radar. There’s several virtual world / digital play type environments about to be launched based on age-old past-times and play patterns. Franktown Rocks, the music-based worldis an example which is already launched and there’s even a world in development of the equine variety.
.
These platforms are extremely simple propositions – no bells, no whistles. Just digitally upgraded versions of age-old play patterns. These offerings in my opinion will be the winners is this space alongside the real-world brands. And here’s some reasons why:
.
1. The brand isn’t the driving factor
.
The proposition – the reason to play is the driver. Link a real world value to a brand name and you solve the brand recall problem that pure-play virtual worlds with names starting with J, K, X and Z fundamentally face. On an extremely simple level, these made-up brand names are difficult to spell (even for adults). Virtual worlds linked to real world play, as we’re seeing with the examples given above (and others in dev), have the generic term for the play (or a link to it) in their name already.
.
2. The proposition is simple
.
You haven’t got to explain what’s on offer nor have you got to convey what do to in-world. The kids have been programmed (for lack of a better term) at an early age to understand what to do. These kids are ‘real world gamers’.
.
3. Engagement is easy
Log-in. Play. Repeat. And the computer and internet combined becomes a massive enabler. Some of these past-times require being taken somewhere by a parent or getting a toy out of a cupboard – actions not always possible or allowed.
.
4. They will attract AND retain members
The relevance and in some cases advancing skill-levels incumbent with digitised real-world play means could mean an opening up of a much wider audience of members that rewards members not with points, gold or medals but with a good old fashion sense of achievement.
.
5. It’s not about chat
Studies we’ve seen show that kids under 9ish are simply not interested in chatting with other members. Many, if not most of the games and past-times played by kids and tweens can be played alone OR with friends. A proposition that facilitates this makes the activity even more real.
.
6. Boys will be boys
.
Some virtual worlds in the kids and tween space openly position themselves to targeting girls and boys. I think this is a misunderstood conception. Want to grow your virtual world as quickly as possible? Focus on one or the other – be highly relevant to one gender as opposed to finding the middle ground in between.
.
Let the (digitised real-world) games (and past-times) commence.